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Prediction for CME (2023-06-27T20:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-06-27T20:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/25752/-1
CME Note: Wide but faint asymmetrical possibly partial halo CME in the NE in both coronagraphs, seen at start and end in FOV of COR2A before and after the nighttime data gap. Likely source is a slow developing dimming NE of AR 3354 (N15E13) in AIA 193 and EUVI A 195 after 2023-06-27T20Z and a faintly seen filament eruption happening at the same time in AIA/EUVI A 304. Arrival signature is very weak. It is characterized by separation of magnetic field components, as well as an increase in speed and magnetic field intensity from 4 nT to 8 nT.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-06-30T11:20Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-07-01T07:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):

Notes:
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2023 Jun 28 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
A 10 degree-long filament eruption centered near N26E24 was observed in
GOES-18 SUVI 304 imagery beginning around 27/1700 UTC, resulting in a
CME that can be seen in SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery. Around the same
time another CME was observed off the east limb, corresponding with
impulsive limb activity that can be seen in SUVI 304 imagery. Both CMEs
were parametrized and modeled with WSA-Enlil returning a low-confidence
glancing blow by mid to late day on 01 Jul.

Lead Time: 58.05 hour(s)
Difference: -19.67 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M Office) on 2023-06-28T01:17Z

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